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Prediction of Effective Rainfall and Crop Water Needs using Data Mining Techniques IEEE PROJECT 2018





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Theeffective rainfall received plays a huge role in the growth of crops in agriculture during all stages of crop growth. There may be times when the effective rainfall received may not be enough to support crop growth and thus knowledge about it beforehand can help farmers in estimating the amount of water that has to be supplied through irrigation. Prediction of effective rainfall and crop water needs is a very challenging task which requires meticulous and scrupulous analysis of a profound list of factors such as temperature and humidity. In the past effective rainfall has been computed by taking three major factors into consideration, the humidity, temperature and the received rainfall. Many mathematical models have been proposed over the ages and many of them are still applied to find the effective rainfall. Here the effective rainfall is computed by performing a series of complex mathematical computations which have been broken up into simpler steps and given as an estimated figure. Important factors such as land evaporation transpiration rates, humidity, groundwater characteristics, and temperature have been considered to ascertain the effective amount of rainfall received in a designated area in a simpler way. This technique can be used to predict the amount of effective rainfall and in turn can also be used to predict the crop water needs for any particular area. For now this method is applied to determine the effective rainfall and crop water needs in Bijapur district of Karnataka to maximize crop yield and to avoid problems such as over irrigation of crops in that area.




Rainfall Characteristics

The soil has a definite water intake rate and moisture holding capacity.Hence higher quantities and rainfall intensities normally reduce the effective fraction of rainfall received, increasing run-off and lessening infiltration. Similarly, uneven distribution decreases the extent of effective rainfall received while an even distribution enhances it.

A well distributed rainfall in frequent light showers is more conducive to crop growth than heavy downpours. Hence the amount, frequency distribution over a area as well as time of rainfall is essential to determine the effective rainfall. The effective rainfall has been computed for certain days in the year 2016 and is used in the data set for the first classifier to determine the crop water needs.


Potential Evapotranspiration

Potential evapotranspiration is primarily governed by evaporative demand under conditions of abundant water supply . An approximation of evaporative demand can be obtained front the combined effect of four parameters: temperature, radiation, wind velocity and humidity. An increase in the first third and decrease in the fourth parameter will enhance evaporation. Such conditions can lead to greater deficits of moisture content in the soil and therefore the proportion of effective rainfall increases as a whole.

The mean monthly values of temperature, radiation, wind velocity and humidity show lesser fluctuation from year to year than total rainfall.The evapotranspiration is calculated by the blaney criddle method and this is substituted in the below formula to find a rough estimate of the effective rainfall.


Other factors in determining effective rainfall

The potential for runoff, the water absorbing capacity of the soil, the effective drainage ofwater, land topography and the influence of the growth stage of the crops are also taken into consideration for finding the effective rainfall.

These contributions are computed using the methods in and and are used to find the final estimate of the effective rainfall obtained from the formula in with the help of various statistical tables that determine the effect of various factors depending upon the effective amount of rainfall calculated in equation


Existing Sytem

Prediction of effective rainfall and crop water needs is a very challenging task which requires meticulous and scrupulous analysis of a profound list of factors such as temperature and humidity.

In the past effective rainfall has been computed by taking three major factors into consideration, the humidity, temperature and the received rainfall. Many mathematical models have been proposed over the ages and many of them are still applied to find the effective rainfall.


Proposed System

The basic steps involved in the process are shown. The system involves the use of a classifier to grasp the essence of its working. It is used to find the amount of water required for the irrigation of crops on a daily basis in the Bijapur and also to suggest a suitable irrigation system that can be implemented for high crop productivity.

Different classifiers are implemented for the purpose of analysis and their details have been recorded


Conclusion




The method was created with the aim to overcome three obstacles.The first one is to find the effective amount of rainfall,the second being to use the effective rainfall to find the irrigation water required and third to suggest suitable irrigation systems that should be implemented by the farmers to increase crop productivity.

The method is succesful in all three aspects and in the future it is expected to bring more areas under inspection and also bring more crops into the picture.



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